I might have gained myself a bit of a reputation as being a harbinger of doom when it comes to talking about the recession but I do think I have called it fairly accurate.
Way back in 2007, while many pundits were oblivious to the gathering gloom, I started to talk about recession and how it was going to change the landscape for land-based businesses.
Indeed the recession came and yes has it changed a lot and boy! has it done some damage.
Some commentators are saying that the recession is over but I don't believe a word of it. One only has to look at Lloyds TSB's massive rights issue today - £13.5 billion plus a bond swap of £8.8 billion = over £22 billion - to see that banking is still in crisis.
World governments cannot keep pumping endless amounts of cash in to keep markets liquid and the mug-punter certainly isn't going to pump his hard earned into companies on the weak promise of returns - remember, Lloyds Bank has to make profits from an ever decreasing pool of businesses and private individuals to increase asset value and pay dividends.
I thought back in late September that all was not rosy and I half expected a second 'crash' as markets corrected. In my own defence I did say that if the Footsie 100 went through 5200 that it would zoom up to create another fresh high since the bottom in March - we might just be close to decision time.
We need to keep an eye on China as it could provide clues to what 2010 might bring. A sharp slowing of growth and a retention of its capital to spend at home will have a knock-on effect.
The UK government is all spent-out and has no room to move. Interests rates cannot go much lower and unemployment is at 7.8% creating an even bigger drain on resources. Tax receipts will be lower and national debt will rise - the nation just cannot avoid a drastic cut in national spending.
There have been too many plates spinning at once and not enough hands to keep them moving - I think that in 2010 some of those plates will crash to the floor and shatter - do not rule out a fall back into recession and I am still expecting the world stock markets to send a warning out that will make us all realise that recovery has happened to0 quickly and that many people have been duped.
Landscaping and gardening will suffer least but it will, no doubt, suffer. I am still keeping an eye on commercial landscaping and top-end landscaping companies, who deal with the upper end of the garden market, for failures.
I think that the market will remain buoyant for the middle to lower end of the gardening and landscaping sector as clients, who have previously spent big when employing commercial contractors, cut their spending and seek out well run businesses who are charging lower rates.
A commercial contractor employing over a dozen staff may well be charging out a single member of staff at £35-50 plus VAT for domestic garden maintenance at the higher end of for garden maintenance. It is a no brainer that a client can reduce costs by up to 50% by seeking out well run businesses who are owner operators or smaller commercial outfits - quality of service could even improve.
A small maintenance provider who operates with less than ten staff will be leaner - they can earn good money at £20-30.00 per hour whilst providing an excellent service.
Similarly, clients who currently spend £20-30.00 and have been beset by their own financial difficulties but still have a need for garden maintenance could well be looking to reduce their own costs by looking for one-man-band outfits who are selling themselves at between £15-25.00 per hour.
My advice to existing small business owners is to trim costs as much as possible before the winter and maintain a low cost base until spring before re-evaluating.
March through to the end of June can drain cash resources and disable effective cash-flow so only take on projects that you are certain will be paid and if you are landscaping, make sure that you get a deposit before starting work and be as efficient as possible - never do a job on a promise.
Landscaping and gardening businesses can find help and support at the Landscape Juice Network.
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