I have been looking forward to getting back into the swing of things all week and when today finally arrived, I wished to have a few more days off.
The weather is gloomy, grey and damp and not at all inspiring; I can imagine that there are many reluctant land-based business owners venturing back to work.
For some, having a few more days off is not up for discussion as icy weather continues to grip parts of the UK and with forecasters predicting up to two weeks more of the same, plans will have to be adapted to suit.
I am not about to attempt a prediction but I do have some thoughts on what we should be looking out for and a few factors that may have influence on the economy and personal fortunes in the coming months.
British football is going to have to stay on its toes if it is to avoid meltdown. I am watching Manchester United very carefully as they try to negotiate three quarters of a billion pounds of debt.
It is reported in the Financial Times and elsewhere this morning, that Man Utd have sought advice from JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank on the issue of corporate bonds in an attempt to pay off some of the debt the club acquired during the complicated takeover by Malcolm Glazer.
What has all of this got to do with gardening and landscaping I hear you ask. Well, I consider the Man Utd position to be one particular high profile case that we can all watch and use as an indicator for the foreseeable future.
Until now, consumer markets have remained particularly robust across many industries. Although retailers have slashed prices, luxury goods seem to have flown off of the shelves through December - now that January is here, personal debts will need to be settled and most of us will have little choice but to use cash to pay credit cards and reduce our liabilities.
In Man Utd's case, they rely on operating profit covering interest payments on its rather large debt, any decrease in consumer and corporate spending on merchandise and its many areas of business and it will mean that debts will effectively increase leaving a shortfall and because the of the way Glazer structured the deal, the liability rests with the club and not with Glazer (clever).
I don't foresee a White Knight on the horizon who is going to buy the club out and take on this liability so, in effect, it is my view that the 'great' Manchester United could lead British football into a a deep spiralling recession that could last, and create ramifications, for several years.
Big money has ripped the heart out of football and other businesses so it is with some irony that any recession in sport will hand any initiatives back to the consumer - football has remained in an vastly inflated bubble for too long and something has got to give and, in my opinion, it surely will.
I have followed Portsmouth for many years and it is with great sadness that they teeter on the brink - it is one of the most atmospheric football grounds I have ever been to but the club, together with its rich history and glorious heritage, has been destroyed by greedy money men - it might be Pompey's demise that will set the wheels in motion to a new order and financial structure emerge, from a decade or more of depravity.
Why should a working man pay more than a days wages out to watch a game of football?
I think the economy will continue to struggle this year but I continue to see a lot of hope for gardeners and landscapers. Grass, hedges, trees and shrubs will always need attention and I feel the home-owner will invest in outdoor space rather than move.
Tangible value can be created in a garden, both in a financial and spiritual sense and whilst the garden industry is far from immune, alert business owners and astute operators can benefit; the secret is attracting new clients or maintaining existing relationships.
One problem the landscaping and garden space is faced with is a saturation of start-ups as new blood enters the industry. I think the effects on a packed market can impact in several ways.
Price competition can lead to an unrealistic valuation in many cases. This competition can also mean a reduction in standards; possible where jobs are rushed as business owners try to keep working days to a minimum and maximise profits or inexperienced operators take on too much.
On the plus side, the large companies, who once enjoyed high-end profits in a buoyant marketplace, will start to rationalise and consolidate and reduce head count - more work will be shared out among smaller enterprise.
However, it is worth keeping an eye on the housing market too as this will have a bearing on landscape construction. There is talk in some quarters that the housing market is as vulnerable as ever.
I have to agree. I think housing is still overvalued and will see further correction but I don't think it will see the end to all landscaping opportunities; it will mean keen competition and only those with a real hunger and innovation will benefit.
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